Skepticism about Saudi, Russia price pledge stalls oil gains
原始发布日期： 2016-02-16 发布者：李方字变大 字变小
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Oil erased gains on speculation that a pledge by Saudi Arabia and Russia to freeze production at January levels won’t succeed in tackling the global oil surplus. Brent crude was little changed, having earlier climbed as much as 6.5 percent. The agreement depends on other producers following suit, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed bin Saleh al- Sada told reporters in Doha Tuesday. The pact won’t be meaningful unless Iran and Iraq, who have been raising output, choose to co-operate, Commerzbank AG said. Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimithe freeze could be followed by other steps to improve the market. “The deal comes with many ‘buts’,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “It’s positive in the long term if OPEC and Russia don’t increase output, as the oil market would rebalance more quickly. But Iran and Iraq did not agree to participate, and the market is still oversupplied, and there’s the question of how to manage compliance.” Venezuela has lobbied exporters including Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia to arrange a meeting between OPEC members and other suppliers in an attempt to reach an agreement to balance the market. Oil is still down about 10 percent this year amid the outlook for increased Iranian exports. BP Plc predicts the market will remain “tough and choppy” in the first half as it contends with a surplus of 1 million barrels a day. Brent for April settlement traded 6 cents higher at $33.45 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. in London after advancing as much as $2.16 to $35.55 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $1.68 to West Texas Intermediate for April. WTI for March delivery climbed as much as $2.09, or 7.1 percent, to $31.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange from the Friday close before trading little changed at $29.45. There was no settlement Monday because of the U.S. Presidents Day holiday. Trades will be booked Tuesday for settlement purposes. The contract gained 12 percent to settle at $29.44 on Friday after dropping 19 percent the previous six sessions. “A freeze would not create an immediate u-turn but it creates a better foundation for the price recovery in the second half,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of oil consultant Petromatrix GmbH, said in a note to clients before the meeting concluded. Russia faces numerous obstacles in cooperating to cut output, even if President Vladimir Putin decides it’s in the national interest. Reducing the flow of crude might damage the nation’s fields and pipelines, require expensive new storage tanks or simply take too long. Production from a shut-in well might never be restored in full, according to Maxim Nechaev, director for Russia at consulting firm IHS Inc. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft OJSC sees “questions but no answers,” in the accord, vice president Mikhail Leontyev said by phone from Moscow. Iran isn’t likely to freeze output right after sanctions were lifted, and “if it doesn’t freeze output, how will the others react?” Rosneft will supply its traditional markets with oil in a “competitive battle,” Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said in London last week. He expressed doubts about any coordinated action by crude-exporting nations to curb output. Iran, which was the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries before sanctions were intensified in 2012, is seeking to boost output by 1 million barrels a day and regain market share after penalties were lifted. The nation has loaded its first cargo to Europe, while Chinese and Spanish companies have also booked shipments. According the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia produced 10.2 million barrels a day in January, below the most recent peak of 10.5 million barrels a day set in June 2015. Russia produced nearly 10.9 million barrels a day in the same month, a post-Soviet record, according to official data. Venezuela pumped 2.4 million barrels a day and Qatar produced 680,000, according to the IEA. –With assistance from Ben Sharples. (Calgary Herald) |
